What Does “War End” Mean?

People who follow my OSINT and analytics work ask me "WHEN will the war end?"

Interestingly, not "HOW will the war end?"

No model can answer both and still be right tomorrow. Mathematics has a nasty habit of being absolute. You can fix the variables and run out the clock — then you get dates. Or you can map the flows and let them converge — then you get the outcome, not the timing.

Some people CAN know WHEN. That requires access to real-time event data at full-scale. (Ukrainian Geopolitical System Delta, does this) Theoretically, Ukrainians may know more, I doubt much more. There are always variables impossible to factor in (we don’t know what we don’t know).

Many people know HOW — practically the whole in-the-know world right now. EU leadership knows how. Ukrainian leadership knows how. Putin knows how. Nobody there is speculating on it. Maybe even Trump knows how; POTUS was certainly shown the models. Whether it registered with him is a separate question.

Let’s first answer "HOW the war ends", and then we will see what we can do about WHEN.

War End — the Necessary Definition

In 2022 people didn’t even know how to define the victory for either side. Luckily, that was quickly sorted. The ISW framework gives us the only mathematically sound definition:

Ukrainians stop killing Russians for good.
OR
Russians stop killing Ukrainians for good.

This is an OR conjunction. Both conditions terminate the war. Neither pausing it, nor freezing it, nor negotiating on it do anything — those only suspend the war. The model requires one side to stop permanently.

Simplified for non-mathematical readers:

• Ukraine ends → war stops.

• Russia ends → war stops.

• Neither ends → war continues.

A temporary ceasefire can happen, but it only benefits Ukraine, and Putin understands that. Since the Korean scenario is impossible, then nothing else closes the equation. Let’s understand impossibilities and contingencies.

Ukrainian Contingencies:

There now is generational hatred of Ukrainians to Russians — Ukrainians WILL NOT stop.

Ukraine is still a pure-democracy (young) — millions of voters funding 1,000+ NDFs.

No matter what politicians tell you — the people define the Ukrainian choice. (Maidan is ongoing.)
Over the last four years Ukrainian Democracy went from marginal to absolute. Zelenskyy’s wishes and decisions don’t matter — he holds ZERO political choice power. He can’t even save his only best friend from the people. The will of the people is dictated by NDFs (National Defense Forces, like Azov). These are about 120 thousand of Ukrainian volunteer soldiers with their own funds, manufacturing, economy, and support ecosystem. NDFs are integrated tightly into AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) totaling 1,130,000 military personnel, 420 thousand SBU personnel, and an unknown number of Special Operations personnel. So, NDFs are a small part of the Ukrainian armed forces, but they kill 98.7% of all the russians. And directly influence ~83% of the electorate — autocratic russia’s worst nightmare: The will of the people. Once we understand this — we understand that neither the Courts (judicial), nor the Congress (Rada), nor the Executive (president) can decide the end to war, even together. Only people decide, this fact has become painfully obvious by:

• The Siege of Azov Steel;

• NDFs taking weapon reserves by force;

• the Kursk offensive, full cycle;

• the reassignment of General Zaluzhny;

• candidacy of General Zaluzhny;

• NABU raid on president’s office;

• and too many other examples to list.

The War ends when Ukrainian volunteer divisions, their families, and friends SAY IT DOES.
NOT when the Ukrainian government votes on it — Putin’s worst nightmare.
(BTW, Unmanned Systems, the entire branch, was 100% NDF — imagine US Marines a private unit!)

The more prudent question is: "WHERE will the NDFs choose to stop: Kursk, Moscow, the Urals?"

 

Greatest Weakness: Limited resources, 2.4 million fighting force with ~10% committed to combat.

Russian Contingencies:

Russian Federation (RF) CANNOT stop — "Russian State" survival depends on THIS war.
(But not Russia the territory or most of its people.)

140+ million russians DON’T make a lick of a difference; 3,100 families are The Russia.

To understand this concept, we first NEED to understand what "Russia" is. This is very alien to us Americans, so pay close attention! Russia is not the 140 million who call themselves russians — it’s only 3,100 families who make fate for everyone. This is because RF is another form of Dictatorship. The USA, Ukraine, Canada, and the EU are a form of dictatorship called Demo-Cracy — the dictatorship, or the will of the majority: What most people want, in one or another bureaucratic form, the rest need to put up with. The USA is a long bureaucratic form packaged as a Republic — a representative democracy where we need to tolerate government for a set period of time. Ukraine is much closer to "pure" Democracy now: the president moves on NABU — that same weekend he backtracks with his pants wet — it’s nice when your elected government is afraid of its people!

But you have already seen that in some places things are WAY different: the majority of the Iranian people are against the government, so the government kills tens of thousands and still gets its way! This is the opposite to Democracy: the "dictatorship of the many"; This is Autocracy: the "dictatorship of the few". Like there are many kinds of Democracy, there also are many kinds of Autocracy. Iranian is called "theocracy" — power of the few that are clergy. And China is "Pure Autocracy" — one party (group) rule, not messing with secondary constructs such as oligarchy, present, or republic, also present in China. So, 140 million russians DO NOT MATTER, will not rise up, and will not make any difference should they rise up — the same as Iranians or Armenians. ZERO.

Russia became Personalist Patronal Autocracy from the Kleptocratic Oligarchy.

Russia is currently in the process of fast-transition, and the war in Ukraine is the state’s critical instrument to make that transition successful. Russia was a Kleptocratic Oligarchy: A small group of elites steals national wealth to consolidate power. Putin and close families all began this way taking over from Yeltsin, who "stole enough," said "he’s tired" and left. Over the last 25 years Putin was working ONLY on one thing: Patronal Power Consolidation.

When done correctly, Patronal systems are exceptionally stable and can survive extreme calamities. This is the play Peter the Great started and Catherine the Great completed spectacularly well in russia’s past. And it is the play Vladimir Putin announced almost 20 years ago and is attempting to complete today.

Two steps were required for Vladimir Putin to consolidate power: 1. Containment of the Ruling Class; 2. Marginalization of Grey Masses. War in Ukraine was not started for either of those goals. But Putin’s office successfully repurposed the war to accomplish the second goal — Ukraine does that for free, especially now. The primary goal was more problematic with the likes of Yevgeny Prigozhin, as servant of ruling elite families marching on Moscow. This incident, however, demonstrated the resilience of Putin’s Patronage leading him to complete the consolidation. The loss of the war with Ukraine doesn’t signify loss to Putin.
Only personal loss of power signifies a loss to Putin. Roosevelt and Stalin Feeding Chickens is the parable.

 

Greatest Weakness: The ruling class is unable to take abuse for the duration required to survive.

Magic Power Test: Who can pull self-destruct?

As you can see, Ukraine and RF have different definitions of "win" and "loss" and neither relate to any "territory". At this point, you have everything needed to answer this without me.
The real test for power is elegantly trivial — can "IT" complete self-destruction!

Real Power in Ukraine:

Before 2002: The Ukrainian government could fracture the state and people couldn’t stop that.
2004: Orange Revolution: People dictated the form and structure of government they "won’t kill."
2014: Revolution of Dignity: People took power away from State; Formed autonomous military.
2020: Land Reforms: People attacked russia-fed oligarchy, unfair business, asset transparency.
2023: Cossack Assertion: Tables turned, Sullivan Gambit failed; NDFs take control of the war.
2024: Weakening of Federal Government: Set of hardcore legislature pushing power down.
2025: Weakening of Federal Government: Harder push to Local / NDF; Rus` Alliance (UNB-8).
2026: Systematic Dismantlement of Corruption: NABU all-mighty; Brigade / Division NDFs.

If you look at this progression, you will notice accelerating, hardcore attack on Federal powers. Ukraine + Nordic-Baltic-8 (UNB-8) establishes direct open defense and economic relations between places like regions of Denmark and regions of Ukraine — no borders.

By today’s standards, the powers of the Ukrainian Federal government are in hard check. Maybe because corruption is one of the primary russian weapons. Any disagreement, such as an attempt to interfere in the corruption investigation of Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s best friend, leads to an immediate protest that turns tanks around the next day. Yermak arrested. After 1: Azov refused orders to surrender Mariupol, then won legally; and, 2: taking military warehouses by force (and blood), then winning in court again — people have a very short fuse with their government shenanigans while loved ones are in combat. Worst, these NDFs are volunteers with massive support communities, they make up less than 10% of the Army and eradicate way more than 90% of threat, making any government action against them deeply unpopular or even treasonous.
Thus, only the Ukrainian people have the power to destroy their statehood.
Putin knows this and sees the Ukrainian people as the main existential threat to his dictatorship.

Real Power in Russia:

Putin came to power as part of a group called "Cooperative Ozero (lake)" and over 25 years of his rule systematically, competently, and most importantly, covertly consolidated his power into a structure of his own design. This structure includes competing security organizations, a layer of ruling class oligarchy each with its own military, a thick network of obscure international relations, own layered security, and of course oldest friends at the small top.

Whilst dismantling russia the country, the SMO (Special 3-day Military Operation) brought an influx of wealth and power to the russian ruling class which grew from ~2,200 families in 2022 to ~3,100 families in 2026. The 86 russian billionaires in 2022 became 155 billionaires in 2026. Less than 10% of russian ruling class lives in russia, that is because the russian government are not all the ruling class — only very few and all are members of Putin’s party "New Russia." This growth started with redistribution of wealth from Western companies leaving russia and now is in full culling mode trimming the count of russian oligarchs down to the size Putin prefers.

Putin is the only person in russia who can ZERO anybody with less than a stroke of pen (and does so actively now). But to dethrone Putin as serious coordinated action by the ruling class is necessary — the action these people are physically incapable of. Putin can destroy the russian state relatively unimpeded and nobody else can.

Here is a human story on what the models said, Sir Bill Browder: (Magnitsky Act and Putin, real story) The Real Reason Putin Invaded Ukraine — Sir Bill Browder (1h:15m) Figure 1. Triggernometry: The Real Reason Putin Invaded Ukraine — Sir Bill Browder (1h:15m long)

What the Models Say?!

Ukraine: stop killing my children now and forever.
Russian Federation: preserve Autocracy indefinitely.

FIXTURE:

1. Ukraine has no foreign aid but keeps nation-to-nation (N2N) relational support.

2. Russia has no nation joining the war and keeps all N2N relational support.

3. All Strategic National Assets at Risk are factored in.

   2022

   • Ukraine win IMPROBABLE; loss PROBABLE.

   • Russia win PROBABLE; loss IMPOSSIBLE.

   • Nuclear weapons use: POSSIBLE.

   2023

   • Ukraine win POSSIBLE; loss IMPROBABLE.

   • Russian win PROBABLE; loss IMPROBABLE.

   • Nuclear weapons use: IMPROBABLE.
     (October 31, 2022, GB pledge of retaliation.)

   2024

   • Ukraine win PROBABLE; loss IMPROBABLE.

   • Russia win IMPROBABLE; loss POSSIBLE.

   • Nuclear weapons use: IMPOSSIBLE.
     (September 2023 multiple pledge escalations.
     Ukraine’s ability to collect russia’s ruling class.)

   2025

   • Ukraine win PROBABLE; loss IMPOSSIBLE.

   • Russia win IMPROBABLE; loss POSSIBLE.

   • Nuclear weapons use: IMPOSSIBLE ←confirmed.
     (Operation Spiderweb.)

   2026

   • Ukraine win PROBABLE; loss IMPOSSIBLE.

   • Russia win IMPOSSIBLE; loss PROBABLE.

   • Nuclear weapons use: IMPOSSIBLE.

PROBABLE: the minimum possible chance in the worst circumstances is > 50%.
IMPOSSIBLE: no realistic scenario factors chance > 0 without breaking dependencies.

Simplified: Can Ukraine achieve victory without foreign aid, against Russia plus North Korea plus Iran plus China as it stands?

That question was answered yes in October 2024 — the day Zelensky wore the Make Russia Small Again. The model at that point ran on Ukraine’s internal annual budget of $37B against Russia’s $250B.

Today Ukraine is at $131.4B and growing on recovering domestic industry. Russia reports $238B — defense and security combined — with a documented funding gap of $28-56B and the military requesting another $36B on top. Ukraine’s war power is 63 times its 2020 figures. Russia’s is 49% and shrinking, whilst Russia had no industrial base to begin with.

Do you know who else showed that kind of growth multiplier under existential pressure?
The American colonies against England. If you want to live, you find a way to fight.

Remember! — Russian and Ukrainian criteria are different. Ukraine can demolish russia, reclaim its own future, collect reparations, establish a DMZ in Russia, maybe even rename Russia to Muscovy — winning all objectives; If simultaneously Putin stays in power (miraculously), thus also winning, only with the Russian people losing.

Do Russians Understand this?!

See for yourself!

Figure 2. Artur Rehi found ONE smart Russian (minute 18:10)

 

What does Putin Think?

Any man who tells you what another thinks is either a fool or a liar! Nevertheless, some analytics are possible for probability reading with the right tools. Putin happens to be a very consistent man to model. Understanding his exact lifestyle, we arrived at the calculation that he sees his loss of power as improbable. This maps cleanly into 11 other historical figures.

FYI, my personal take doesn’t match the university’s model — I think Putin will deal to keep his power. But I am nobody in this respect. Garry Kasparov, however, is highly respected on this subject: he even called the outcome of Iran 4 months before it happened!

Figure 3. Explanation: Garry Kasparov: Putin Trump AI and the Global Fight for Democracy.

 

WHEN the War Ends

Now that you understand the governing dynamics of this war, you can answer this question yourself — modeling a date, even continuously floating, is a fool’s errand. Partly because disruptions Ukraine introduces are unpredictable. And partly because the resilience of the Russian dictatorial state is higher than any known estimate. I am sure Ukraine does this estimation anyway — they have the system, nobody else does. And maybe it gives them some useful feedback. To me, other conclusions and assessments are far more valuable:

1. Russian terminal demographic exacerbated by the war puts russians (Merya, Muroma, Meshchera, and Veps) on the extinction path.

2. Having the greatest resources around russia squandered its wealth due to a lack of "freedom gene."

3. This war is the greatest thing that happened to Ukraine, inevitably restoring the nation. (Ukraine Replaces America documents the replacement.)

4. My 'Merica had a unique chance to lead, profit, and prosper with Georgia, Armenia, Chechnya, and Ukraine but instead chose dishonor, ignorance, shortsightedness, and guaranteed loss. (Seven Betrayals is the ledger.)

Important for the USA:

Everything reduces to this:

1. Helping Ukraine does not change the outcome — the war ends one way.

2. Helping Ukraine saves lives: Ukrainian lives, and Russian lives, as Russia falls faster.

Not helping is not neutral. It is choosing a side inevitably ushering the slower, bloodier version of the same ending. And arriving at that ending with no leverage, no relationships, no honor, and no place in history.

Freedom Isn’t Free! — collector